Panaji : Yesterday on 15 June 2021 the Indian Meteorological Department gave a warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall for the next 4 days. How did they predict rainfall in the future ? Moreover how do they do that well ahead of time giving our farmers a heads up to sow their seeds and plan their irrigation resources.
Weather forecasting is the process in which science and technology is used to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have been predicting the weather since time immemorial but formally it was started in the 19th Century.
Prediction of monsoon is done by IMD in different spatial and temporal scales. It varies from country as a whole to district wise in spatial scales and from a seasonal forecast to nowcast in temporal scale.
IMD issues short to medium range forecasts for 5 days based on various national and international weather forecasting model guidance and expertise from the scientists. This forecast is being used by various stakeholders for planning their routine activities.
But how is the monsoon monitored ? Monsoon is being monitored by IMD using various techniques like Continuous monitoring of surface and upper air meteorological observation; Real time monitoring of the monsoon using remote sensing; techniques like satellite and Radars ; Analysis of the different meteorological charts ; Guidance from various national and international weather forecasting and models at different spatio-temporal scales.
IMD has their fair share of challenges too. They are still working on how to improve the synoptic variability in present day climate models and are also working on the question of What is required to represent clouds accurately in the present weather forecasting and climate models.
IMD has many future projects in mind to improve weather forecasting. In the digital world even IMD is working on Developing an integrated mobile app for weather information.
